Soochow Securities: taking history as a mirror, the deduction and influence of the soaring inflation in the United States

Soochow Securities: taking history as a mirror, the deduction and influence of the soaring inflation in the United States
On June 10, 2021 EST, the US Department of labor released inflation data for May. In May, CPI in the United States rose by 5.0% year on year, while core CPI rose by 3.8%, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in June is just around the corner. We review several historical inflation surges in the United States in order to better understand this inflation and its impact: since 1960, CPI in the United States has broken 5% year on year four times (Figure 1). We have reviewed the economic fundamentals and fed policies during the period from CPI breaking 4% to CPI falling 5% (Table 1). 1968 / 06-1971 / 09: the economy fell into recession, but the relationship between large government expenditure and fiscal stimulus